Last week in the news
It was a volatile week for BTC. After reaching ATH at $61.8K, negative news coming from India on potential ban of crypto currencies in this country impact BTC price correction to level of $53.2K. As of the end of this week, coin was back to levels of $60K after FED announced that near zero interest rates could be prevailing for some time in the future.
Crypto market was a bit shaken during the previous week as Reuters reported that India is considering to ban crypto currencies in the country. This ban refers to both mining and also holding any of crypto currencies and includes fines if anyone breaks this rule. Potential ban would come as a measure from Indian government with the aim to create an environment for issuance of its own digital currency. This information was provided to Reuters from an unnamed government official, so at this moment it is unconfirmed, but still, it should be closely followed as it could have a significant impact on the crypto market in the future. Namely, it is estimated that India has around 8 million investors in crypto currencies with holdings of around $1.4 billion. Actual introduction of a ban in India might trigger significant selloff of crypto currencies.
Coinbase Inc. is setting stage for its listing on Nasdaq with more than 114 million tradable shares, which might happen in April, as per currently available information. Pre-IPO value of the company is seen at nearly $68 billion. However, during the previous week the company settled charges from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the amount of $6.5 million, as it was accused of not reporting properly all transaction data on its GDAX platform, which in consequence had falsely increased data of trading volumes. The issue arose due to exchange of transactions between two trading platforms through multiple accounts, which were exchanging matched orders with each other. As the company said, the settlement will not have any impact on its customers and that company will continue to aim for a “reliable and secure trading environment”.
Bitcoin Suisse AG. based in Zug, was rejected for issuance of a banking licence from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) due to potential weaknesses in operational mechanisms, especially in the field of anti-money laundering.
FED announced that it will not raise interest rates at least for next three years, and that they have other means to control potential rise in inflation above targeted level. Their expectations on inflation levels are raised to 2.2% as well as GDP for this year at level of 6.5% on an annual basis. However, many analysts are not convinced that the inflation level would stay at 2%, but will be much higher considering projected strong economic growth. In this sense, FED would have to increase interest rate in a much shorter period of time from the projected three years period. Anyway, for the moment FED is not considering changing its near-zero real rates strategy.
Crypto market cap
There has been a modest increase of $20B in total volume in crypto market capitalization during the previous week. Current level stands at $1.8 trillion, which is a modest increase of 1.2% on a weekly basis. Major contributors to this increase were mostly altcoins, as BTC, the major contributor, was performing in a negative zone. Volume of daily trades was also modestly decreased to levels between $250B and $200B on a daily basis. Total cash inflow from the beginning of this year is $1 trillion which is an increase of 127% in relative terms.
It was a mixed week for crypto currencies, where focus was mostly on altcoins. Coins which performed with an increase in market capitalization were Theta, with an increase of 29%, followed by Cardano, with increase of 13% and NEO with 10%. Bitcoin lost some $9B in total market capitalization compared with the week before, which was a loss of 0.85%. Ethereum lost some $2.65B or 1.3%, followed by Litecoin with a decrease of $1.14B or 8%.
The table below provides most recent information regarding market cap and circulating supply for most popular crypto currencies.
BTC still testing resistance at $60K
Previous week was volatile for BTC, mainly due to few important market news. Negative news regarding the ban of all crypto currencies in India had an impact on decreased market sentiment for BTC, where currency lost some of its value by reaching a level of $53K. However, due to concerns regarding future inflation expectations in the US and FED's announcement that it will continue with policy of near zero interest rates, supported BTC, who went back to levels of $60K, supported BTC. This level is an important resistance for BTC.
Technical analysis is suggesting that the current up trend is still not completely over as RSI is moving around level of 60. This might imply that BTC will continue to test current resistance at $60K for a few days. If this level is not broken, then some short term reversal might be expected. Current support level stands at $58K, while next short term support can be found at $55K, down to $50K.
ETH still on the road to $2K
At the beginning of the previous week Ethereum managed to go above the resistance level of $1.850, but due to negative news about Indian ban of cryptos, ETH reverted a bit to the opposite side, touching the level of $1.700. However, ETH finished the week at resistance level of $1.850, testing it once again. RSI is currently above 50, which provides some probability that current resistance might be broken. In this case, ETH would set a clear path to next resistance and current ATH level at $2K. Still, in case that there is not enough market strength to push currency up, reversal might be in store, down to levels of $1.720 and $1.650.
Ripple is back in the game?
During the previous week Ripple continued with its slow volatility around level of $0.45. However, during Saturday there had been quite a strong move to the level of next short term resistance at $0.50. Is this signal that XRP is back in the market game, is about to be seen during following weeks. Currency is currently testing resistance at $0.50, with RSI around 60, which might indicate some strength to go above this level during next week. Next short term resistance stands at $0.55. In case of short term reversals, levels to watch are $0.45 as currently significant level, down to $0.37 and $0.30.
What’s in store for altcoins
For a second week in a row Theta is breaking ATH levels. Two weeks ago Theta managed to reach ATH at $8, while previous week this level was broken, with coin reaching new high at $9. This is another altcoin with astonishing performance since the beginning of this year. How much more interest for this coin exists on the market, we are going to see in the following period. Currency is currently trading around level of $8.3, as a short term reversal from ATH level previously reached. Based on historical performance, short term support level can be found at $8, down to $6.
Previous week was a good week also for Cardano (ADA). As we mentioned in our previous weekly review, surprises with ADA are always possible, and exactly that happened last week, when the coin managed to break resistance at $1.2, reaching a level of $1.47, which is ATH for this coin. ADA is currently testing support level at $1.2. In case that this level is broken, the next support level to watch stands at $1.14 down to $0.9. On the opposite side, resistance levels are at $1.34, $1.40 and $1.47.
Litecoin started a weak testing resistance at $230. Without strength to go above this level, LTC reverted down to test support at $200. As RSI is currently moving around level of 50, there might be some possibility that level of $230 be tested in the coming week. In the opposite case, the next support level can be found at $180, $150 down to $130.
For last two weeks LINK is moving in a range between levels of $26 up to $31. Strong resistance level stands at $30, but coin didn't manage to clearly break it. Whether this will be the case in the week to came, we are going to see, but RSI around 50 for last two weeks, does not suggest that coin is following any trend at this moment. In case that resistance at $30 is broken, coin might test next resistance at $35. On the opposite side, support stands at $25 down to $18.
It was a very quiet week for DOGE. Coin was moving between levels of $0.05 up to $0.06, without clear indication on trend. In case of clear break of current resistance at $0.06, coin would test next resistance at $0.07. If DOGE reverts to the opposite side, support levels are at $0.05 down to $0.03.
NEO managed to break the two-week channel between levels of $35 and $42 and reached a price of $47. It was a clear break of resistance at $40, which is the level that coin is currently testing. In case that this level is broken, next support stands at $30 down to $20. As RSI is currently around 60, there is some probability that NEO would revert on the up side in order to test next resistance at $55.
Monero (XMR) is continuing to test resistance at $230 for a third week in a row. In case that coin enters in reversal during next week, it might test support at $200 down to $170. However, if current level is broken, then next resistance levels can be found at $250 up to $270.
Disclaimer: This article provides exclusive views of the author. It does not in any sense represent a suggestion for trading.
This Market Analysis has been published by a staff writer at XBTFX.
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