Last week in the news

Financial markets were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, still under influence of geopolitics and inflation fears. Crypto market is finishing the week higher compared to the week before. Bitcoin is traded at $42K, Ether is still below $3K.

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 percentage points, in line with market expectations and previous announcements from FED Chair Powell. FED announced that more rate hikes are to come during the course of the year.  At the same time few FED policymakers expressed their opinion that FED will need to make more moves in interest rates in order to fight increasing inflation, noting a level of 1.75% up to 2% by the end of this year.

Meta company, ex Facebook, was sued in Australia for scamming cryptocurrency ads. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission pressed charges against Meta as the company was not able to protect customers from fake celebrity endorsements of cryptocurrencies. In case that Meta is found guilty in this case, it might end up with millions of dollars` worth of fines.

HSBC is another bank, after JPMorgan, entering the Metaverse space for the purpose of expanding its business. As it has been announced, HSBC will enter virtual space through The Sandbox, with intention to buy a virtual plot of land and develop virtual space for sports, esports and gaming.

Ukraine has adopted a Law on cryptocurrencies, making it legal business in this country. Both foreign and local businesses and exchangers are now able to operate legally, as noted by the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation. Through this Law, Banks will also be allowed to open accounts for crypto companies.

Investors interest continues to be focused on decentralized finance. New York start-up company ConsenSys managed to raise additional $450 million for their projects in the field of software development on Ethereum network and Web3. This news spotted market attention considering that investors in this round of fundraising were Microsoft and Japan's SoftBank, among others.

Analysts are pointing to significant discrepancy between Chainlink`s total value secured and coin`s market cap due to several issues. They are also commenting that this discrepancy might be settled through coin`s upgrade Chainlink 2.0, but it is still unknown when this upgrade might occur. Still, markets hold positive sentiment for this coin as they count on its high potential for use in DeFi, insurance and gaming industries.

Crypto market cap

Although the crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the course of a week, still the end of the week brought some positive developments. Total crypto market capitalization is ending the week 8% higher from a week before, reaching $1.86 trillion. Market recovered some losses since the end of February this year. Almost all coins gained during the week, adding $139B to the market cap.  Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased compared to a week before, moving between $100B and $150B. Total outflow of the funds since the beginning of this year stands at level of 15% or $318B.

It was a positive week for crypto coins, since the majority ended the week in green. In nominal amounts, the crypto market was led by Bitcoin who gained additional $56B or 8%, followed by Ether, with a surge in market cap of $38B or 12%. Binance Coin increased its market cap by 6% or $4B. Ripple is back in the game with a weekly jump in market cap of 10% or $3,6B. Group of gainers above $1B includes also Solana and Polkadot. In a relative amount, the winner of the week is certainly Zcash with a surge in market cap by 55%. This comes as a result of the announcement from Barry Silber, CEO Digital Currency Group, that the company bought additional Zcash coins worth $85 million. During the previous week many altcoins have increased their coins in circulation, among which Filecoin with 3.8% and Polygon with 1.3% were leading the market.

The table below provides most recent information regarding market cap and circulating supply for most popular crypto currencies.

Crypto futures market

After several weeks it seems like positive market sentiment is back on the crypto futures market. All maturities for both BTC and ETH are finishing week higher from the week before. Prices are back to the levels from the end of February this year. BTC`s shorter maturities were up by 8%, while Ether managed to increase prices by 16%, heading again toward $3K. BTC`s price for end of this year is still holding around $42K, while Ether managed  to return to levels above $3K for maturities in December 2023.

Table below provides the most recent information on BTC and ETH future prices.

Bitcoin: targeting $45K?

Although the previous week was traded in a mixed manner, it seems that by the end of the week markets have digested all the previously released news and started re-positioning. Bitcoin returned to its path from three weeks ago, heading toward $45K resistance.

BTC started the previous week around $37K levels, testing the resistance line at $40K for the break to the upside. In mid of the week market found strength to push price above this line, finishing the week around $42K. Latest price moves have pushed the moving average line of 50 days to finally start its convergence toward its MA200 counterpart. Certainly this move has been awaited by market participants for some time now, but it will still take some time until the final cross between lines occurs and indicates a change of a trend. RSI managed to make a move above 50, which is indication that the market is moving toward the overbought zone.

Current charts are suggesting that there is increased potential for $45K resistance to be tested in the coming period, however, some prior price moves might be expected. On the downside, there is a higher probability for the $40K support line to be tested again. Probability for $38K is currently decreased. In a move to the upside, BTC might first shortly stop around $43 level, before it continues the road toward $45K resistance.

Ether: is there strength for a break of $3K?

In line with positive market developments, investor’s interest in ETH returned. Coin started the week around $2.5K level and managed to push the price close to $3K level. However, until the weekend, the $3K level had not been clearly tested, neither coin managed to reach this price. Current question is if the market has strength to make the final break to psychological $3K level?

Moving average of 50 days made a clear move to the upside and started divergence toward MA200. This is the first indication in technical analysis over a potential future cross of two lines, but there is still time until such a cross actually occurs. RSI made a strong move from 40 up to 59, indicating that market is on the road to overbought market.

Technical analysis is currently pointing that ETH is on the road to the overbought market. Psychological level of $3K has not been clearly tested during the previous week, which is increasing the probability for such a move in the coming days. There is a decreased probability that the coin might make a move toward the next resistance line at $3.3K. On the opposite side, there is an equal probability that the support line at $2.850 might be tested one more time, before the coin's final move to $3K.

Ripple: next target is $0.85?

Second week in a row XRP is modestly but gradually moving to the higher grounds. Last week the coin started around the $0.75 resistance line and finished the week testing $0.8 as a next resistance. There are indications that XRP`s next short term target might be $0.85, however, long term resistance at $0.9 is still not in prospectus.

Second week in a row XRP is finding support at MA50 line. During the previous week MA50 started its stronger convergence toward MA200. Cross is still not in store, but two indicators are on a good path for cross to occur in the coming weeks. RSI has moved from 50 to 60 levels, which is an indication of potential future price moves toward the overbought market.

Charts are suggesting that there is a high probability for XRP to continue toward $0.85 resistance in the coming period. There is still a decreased probability that this line can be broken to the upside. On the opposite side, there is a probability that the coin will continue to test the $0.80 support line within the next few days until it finally makes a move to the upside.

Binance Coin: $420 resistance is not too far

BNB had a relatively good week, with almost $4B added to the market cap, despite continuing relatively lower volatility, which is evident during last month. As of the end of the week the resistance line at $400 has been tested, but still without market strength to push the price further.

Another positive development for BNB is that the moving average of 50 days has significantly decreased divergence from its MA200 counterpart. At this moment, there is no indication that indicators started a convergence move, but there is probability for it to occur in the following days. RSI has been pushed further to the upside, breaking 50 lines and reaching 55.

Current charts are suggesting that there is equal probability for the coin to move both to the upside and downside at this moment. Next couple of days will confirm the direction. On one hand, there is a probability for BNB to make a move toward the $360 support line in order to test it once again. There is no indication that the coin might move below this level. On the other hand, the resistance line at $420 has not been tested recently, which increases the probability for this level to be tested in the coming period. In case that price is moved toward $420, it will also support MA lines to start convergence moves and potential for the coin to move to the higher grounds in the future.

Cardano (ADA):  short term break of a current trend?

Cardano was following general market trends during the previous week and increased market optimism, where the coin was able to make a short break from its clear down trend and push the price into short trend correction. The price of the coin reached minimum weekly level at $0.76 and swiftly returned to the higher grounds, finishing the week around $0.9 resistance line. However, looking at technical charts, the question must be imposed if this move makes a reversal point or only short term break of a current trend?

Regardless of the latest price moves, moving averages of 50 and 200 days are continuing to show less optimism for the potential future moves for ADA. Namely, from the beginning of December last year two indicators are in continuous divergence from each other, while last week did not show any progress in terms of at least slowdown. What is also evident from charts is that for the last four months ADA has been finding resistance at MA50 line, without strength to break it. If these moves continue, then it might be expected that ADA will continue its latest move up to the level of $0.95, but not higher from this level. RSI made a shy move above 50, but only to level of 53.

Charts are suggesting that hard times might continue for some time. On a positive side is the latest move, which shows that there is interest in this coin. However, it might take some time until the coin returns toward its old path. Levels to watch in the coming days are $0.95 resistance, and $0.75 short support.

LINK: reversal is coming?

Previous week LINK was in the spotlight of the market as analysts, involved in a matter, publicly noted that there is a huge discrepancy between coin`s total value secured and current market cap. This difference is estimated to be even several billion dollars. Still, regardless of this news, markets continue to be shy when it comes to stronger demand for this coin. Anyway, LINK continues to trade in green territory. Coin started the previous week at a minimum level of $12.4 and continued to push price to the upside till the level of $15 resistance as of the end of the week.

There have been some positive movements in technical indicators during the week. Moving average of 50 days slowed down its divergence from MA200. Indicator is still not showing a sign that it started a convergence, but slowdown indicates a higher potential for such a move in the near future. For the last three weeks RSI was struggling to make a move above level of 50, while previous week it is ending around 55 level. This move adds to the probability that the market will look for an overbought market in the days to come.

LINK is currently testing a $15 resistance line. If positive market sentiment continues, there is a high probability that LINK will be able to break this line in the coming days, and to head toward next resistance at $20, with a short stop around $18. On the opposite side, it is unlikely that the coin will make a move toward the long term support line at $8, but there is some probability that the short term $12 line might be tested again.

Disclaimer: This article provides exclusive views of the author. It does not in any sense represent a suggestion for trading.

This Market Analysis has been published by a staff writer at XBTFX.

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