Last week in the news

It was a significant week for the Bitcoin and crypto market. First BTC-futures based ETF fund was listed on NYSE on Tuesday. This was another milestone successfully reached for Bitcoin, hence its price was pushed to the new ATH at level of $67K.

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF is officially the first exchange-traded fund with peg on Bitcoin futures contracts which was listed and traded on New York Stock Exchange starting from Tuesday previous week. On the first day of trading its price jumped almost 5%.

The Senate Committee on Australia published a report in which it is stated that Australia should introduce regulation which will stimulate crypto miners through decreased taxes and other stimulus measures. Decentralised autonomous company structures should also be part of the support measures. As noted in the report, the aim of such a move is to make Australia more competitive among other countries like Singapore, the UK and the US.

In a latest round of fundraising, cryptocurrency exchanger FTX, based in Bahamas, announced an additional $420 million, increasing the company value to $25 billion. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried noted that the target of the company is to “enhance our offerings for digital asset investors”.

Coinbase announced on their blog a new product which would allow its clients direct deposit into account with Coinbase. Deposit can be made in crypto currencies or USD. This product should allow their clients to decrease costs of funds transfers. This service is currently available only to US based customers.

Former U.S. president, Donald Trump announced his plan to launch a social media network which will include a social platform called Truth Social. The aim of such a move, in his words, is to “stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech”. This company is also going to be listed on Nasdaq, through its merger with Digital World Acquisition Group.

XBTFX has integrated Binance Smart Chain for funds transfers, lowering transfer fees to less than $1. More on the topic can be found at  XBTFX blog.

Crypto market cap

As Bitcoin hit another milestone with the first BTC-futures based ETF listed on the NYSE, market optimism pushed total market capitalization to new all time highest levels. During the week, total cap has reached levels of $2.650 trillion, for the first time since the foundation of the crypto market, ending the week around level of $2.56 trillion. This represents an increase of additional $78 billion on a weekly basis or 3%. Certainly, the winner of the market for the second week in a row was Bitcoin, who also reached new ATH.  Although daily trading volumes have been modestly increased in the beginning of the week, they have been weakened as of the weekend, as markets have calmed down, moving around $170B on a daily basis. Total inflow from the beginning of this year stands at $1.77 trillion, which is an increase of 223%.

Previous week was another week with Bitcoin in focus of the investors and major coin driving crypto market. Most of the currencies gained during the previous week. Ether was up by 5% with a gain of $23B in market cap on a weekly basis. LINK also performed quite well, with an increase of 8% in market cap compared to the end of the previous week. Another coin worth mentioning, with significant performance, was ZCash with a surge of 34% in a single week and an additional 0.4% increase in circulating coins. However, there were also coins with a decrease in market cap, like Ripple, which was down by 5%, Stellar lost some 8% while Cardano is continuing its negative trend with a decrease of almost 3% on a weekly basis.

The table below provides most recent information regarding market cap and circulating supply for most popular crypto currencies.

Crypto futures market

During the previous week BTC futures were pushed to $67K in line with the spot market. As the markets calmed down as of the end of the week, so were the future prices. However, the most interesting development was with futures maturing in December next year, whose highest price during the week was $72K on Tuesday. This implies market expectation that BTC can reach this level within one year period of time.

ETH futures were also traded higher. Highest price increase within a week is reached with maturities December 2022, at $4.460, which is an increase of 7% on a weekly basis, but also is higher from current ETH ATH.

Table below provides the most recent information on BTC and ETH future prices.

Bitcoin: futures are revealing long term investors optimism

Bitcoin made another breakthrough in its agenda to become a fully accepted mainstream coin. On a Tuesday this week ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF is officially the first fund with peg on Bitcoin futures contracts which is listed and freely traded on NYSE. Positive investor sentiment has pushed the price of BTC to new historical highs at a price of $67K for one Bitcoin. Since the end of the previous week BTC was moving in an overbought market, due, some short term reversal was expected after the peak price was reached. BTC ended the week above support line at $60K. On the other side, positive for BTC is that futures reached a price of $72K, for maturities December 2022, which might be one of the indications where investors are expecting BTC price to be within a year.

RSI has moved from overbought zone down to levels around 60, indicating that there is a lot of space until the oversold territory. MA50 is continuing its divergence from MA200 line, due, not providing any indication that some trend reversal is ahead. After reaching ATH at $67K, BTC reverted down to its current major support line at $60K. This level is currently tested.

Technical analysis is suggesting that short term reversal is to be expected in the coming days. The $60K has been a major resistance line for BTC since February this year, but now it is for the first time a support line. There is a high probability that BTC will try again to test levels around $50K in the coming weeks in order to finish the cycle. Level of $60K will be the one to watch in the coming days. In case that it is clearly broken, it would be an indication that BTC is headed toward $55K, down to $50K and the end of the cycle. However, in case that some fundamentals push the price to the upside, then the level of $65K would be in market focus.

Ether: still no clear overbought market      

In line with increased market optimism, Ether`s price was pushed to levels above $4K during the previous week. The highest price reached was on Tuesday, when the coin was traded at ATH level of $4.380 but did not manage to go beyond ATH line this time. Nevertheless, this move shows that there is still significant investor confidence in ETH, and especially if we take into account that futures prices for December 2022 have reached a level of almost $4.500 for the first time since they are traded on the CME.

Current charts reveal that ETH, with its latest move above $4K, did not pass the line of clear overbought market. This leaves some space for the price of the coin to move to a higher ground from present levels. MA50 is modestly slowing down but still keeps safe distance from its MA200 counterpart. ETH is currently testing a short term support line at $4K, which is a major level to watch in the next few days. In case that there is a clear break of this level, than ETH`s next stop will be at $3.5K support line, with low probability to reach $3.2K. On the opposite side, there is also higher probability for ETH to test $4.3K  one more time, before clear oversold market is reached.

Ripple: oscillators call upon precaution  

General market optimism has missed XRP during the last two weeks. Coin is continuing its slowdown in price volatility, still finding major support at the MA50 line. During the previous week, XRP price was moving in a range of 10 pips, from $1.06 up to $1.16. At the same time MA200 is continuing to move closer to MA50, while MA50 continues converging toward MA200. This is increasing the probability of the so-called “dead cross” in the near future, and is indication of some trend change. In this case, the end of a cycle will be at $0.8 level. Whether this will be the case for XRP is about to be seen in the coming weeks. RSI does not provide any indication on potential short term reversal, since it continues to move around 50.

For the moment, the support line at $1.0 is in the focus of the market. However, since XRP is holding the MA50 line as a major support during the last two weeks, there might be some delays with clear testing of this level. A break of MA50 line would be an indication that XRP is on the road to $1.0 support, with some probability that $0.9, a long term support, might be the next target. On the opposite side, the resistance line at $1.20 has not been tested, but based on current charts, there is a decreased probability that it will be tested within the next few days.

Binance Coin: $520 resistance is hard task

It has been another week for BNB with relatively higher volatility and determination to break $520 resistance, but again without success. Since the end of August, BNB has been struggling to break this level, but there is still not enough market strength for such a move. In the latest attempt, BNB reverted down to the level of $440, in order to test the support line. Currently, BNB is traded around $480.  Although RSI touched once 70, it is still not moving in an overbought market, leaving some space for $520 to be tested again. However, currently most concerning is that MA50 is slowly reaching MA200 line from the upside, indicating that a cross might occur soon.

Resistance at $520 is continuing to be in the market spotlight. In case that it is broken on the upside, it will be an indication of BNB`s move toward next resistance at $560. However, there is also a high probability of BNB`s short term reversal, at least to the MA50 line, which currently collides with the $430 support line. Also, the risk of a so-called “dead cross” still holds for BNB, which will be finally resolved within the next few weeks. At this moment charts look more bearish for the period of next few days.

Cardano (ADA):  support $2.0 holding strongly

Regardless of general developments on the crypto market, ADA is continuing its slow-motion price moves. Still, what is encouraging is that the support line at $2.0 is indeed a hard task for the market to break on the downside. For last month this level was strongly holding. Highest level reached during the week was $2.32. MA50 is by now strongly converging toward MA200, but there is still distance between two lines, which might be swiftly closer, if the trend continues. RSI is still moving around 50, without indication on potential reversal in the coming period.

Current charts are suggesting that pressure on the support line at $2.0 might continue in the coming days. In case that it is finally broken, the next level to watch would be $1.85 support. However, there is an equal probability that testing upside will continue. In this sense, the level of $2.30 might be tested again.

LINK: how far is $35?

Previous week was a good one for LINK as the coin managed to finally break movements from $20 to $25 and make this longer awaited move toward the $30 resistance line.  RSI went to levels above 60, but it is still not indicating a clear overbought market. Oscillators are continuing to move as two parallel lines.

RSI is currently leaving some space for $30 resistance to be tested one more time in the coming days. Whether LINK will have market strength to break this level is to be seen. In case that it happens, then LINK`s next target will be $35 resistance. In case of a short term reversal, it might be expected that the $27 level, where currently MA200 support stands, might be reached, while LINK would certainly target a strong support line at $25.

Disclaimer: This article provides exclusive views of the author. It does not in any sense represent a suggestion for trading.

This Market Analysis has been published by a staff writer at XBTFX.

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