Last week in the news
The U.S. jobs data has pushed the equities market and the U.S. dollar higher, however, BTC ended the week relatively flat, around $61K. At the same time, for the second week in a row Ether is reaching new historically highest levels at $4.660.
New York City mayor, Eric Adams, has plans to make NYC “the center of the cryptocurrency industry and other fast-growing, innovative industries”. He announced this in one of his posts on Twitter on Thursday, noting also that he plans to take his first three paychecks in Bitcoin. The latest was a sort of a response to Miami mayor Francis Suarez who previously announced that his next paycheck will be 100% in Bitcoin.
The U.S. a $1.2 billion Infrastructure Bill was adopted by the U.S. Senate late Friday. Previously this Bill raised several concerns among crypto industry professionals and lawyers considering that there are unclear requirements relating to tax reporting, especially when it comes to crypto miners. Another issue relates to Tax code 6050I, related to Tax Law, by which, any transaction above $10K needs to be verified and hold personal information of the sender like social security number and the nature of the transaction. After China's total ban on any crypto related business, some of the U.S. states, like Miami and lately New York, have widely welcomed crypto businesses and innovations around it. How these controversial articles of the Bill will be settled in the U.S. is to be seen, but it should also be kept in mind that markets are waiting for new regulation on cryptos to be introduced by the SEC and the U.S. Treasury in the coming months.
According to the latest information from Bank of China officials, there are 140 million people who have opened wallets for PBOC's new digital Yuan. As of the end of October total volume of transactions with digital Yuan reached some 62 billion, equivalent to $9.7 billion. On the other hand, digital Yuan is still in the testing phase, while the date of its final launch has still not been officially announced by PBOC.
In an interview with CNBC, Mark Mobius, a global investor and founder of Mobius Capital Partners, expressed his view on crypto currencies, noting “it's not an investment, it's a religion”. He also advised that crypto currencies should be perceived as a “means to speculate and have fun”, while he sees equity market as place for investments with huge further potential, regardless of current record highs.
Crypto market cap
During the previous week market focus was on the better than expected U.S. job data, considering its importance for FED in terms of potential rate increase in the near future. Crypto market was traded in a relatively flat mode, still, with few altcoins which had excellent weekly performance. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 3% on a weekly basis, reaching $2.66 trillion. Increase is mostly driven by several most popular altcoins like Ether, Binance Coin and Solana. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat, moving between $180B and $200B on a daily basis. Total inflow from the beginning of this year stands at $1.87 trillion, which is an increase of 236%.
Major altcoins were in focus of the market during the previous week, while Bitcoin remained relatively flat. Ether reached new ATH for a second week in a row, adding to its market cap additional $16B during the week and increasing it by 3%. Ether was followed by Binance Coin, whose market cap was additionally increased by $15B or 18% in a single week. It is worth mentioning recently popular Solana, who continued its surge, adding additional $18B to its market cap and increasing it by 32% on a weekly basis. Tether had also surged its market cap, through an increase of its circulating supply by 2.2%, reaching total $71.85B in market capitalization.
The table below provides most recent information regarding market cap and circulating supply for most popular crypto currencies.
Crypto futures market
In line with the spot market, BTC futures remained relatively flat during the previous week. Futures with shorter maturities dropped by some 2%, while maturities in December 2022 are still holding above $67K.
Second week in a row ETH futures are trading higher. Price for maturities until the end of this year remained above $4.500, while futures with maturity December next year are traded higher by 4%, reaching a price of $4.840, higher from previous week`s $4.650. This is another indication that markets are expecting further increase of ETH price during next year.
Table below provides the most recent information on BTC and ETH future prices.
Bitcoin: for how long can $60K hold?
Bitcoin continued to slow down after reaching a new historically highest level. Since the previous week, testing of the $60K support line continues with pressure on the downside. Short reversal to the upside BTC had on Tuesday, reaching weekly highest level at $64.2K, but soon reverted to downside at $60K support. RSI is also slowing down, moving around level of 50. Moving average for the last 50 days is continuing its strong divergence from its MA200 counterpart, excluding an indication that cross, and potential trend reversal, might be in store anytime soon.
Technical indicators are still suggesting that pressure on the $60K support line, which started two weeks ago, will continue in the coming days. If this line is broken on downside, then it might be expected that first stop of BTC will be at level of $57K, before it reaches next support line at $55K. On the opposite side, if the market finds strength to resist current $60K pressure, then BTC will move once again toward the current resistance line at $65K.
Ether: ready for short correction, or maybe not?
Previous week was another week in which Ether strongly supported assumptions of some market analysts with the opinion that ETH is finally on its path to break correlation with BTC. However, there are also analysts who are pointing that the market is currently interested in coins with significant potential in DeFi`s and NFT`s, which explains ETH`s and Solana`s recent rise in price. ETH futures market is also supporting such a view, considering that during last week, ETH`s futures price for the end of next year has reached a historically highest level at $4.8K. At the same time, for a second week in a row, ETH has achieved new ATH on the spot market, with a price of $4.660, reached on Wednesday.
During the previous week RSI modestly touched level of 70, however, it continued to move modestly below this level, putting in question if clear overbought market has actually been reached or is it still to come? Moving average for 50 days is continuing slowly to diverge from MA200, not providing any indication that some trend reversal might be in store for ETH. Latest price movements are continuing to support the upside channel which began in early October.
Currently, indicators for ETH are a bit mixed. Charts are showing that a short term reversal is coming for ETH, but still there is no clear confirmation that it might happen in the next few days. In this sense, if the uptrend holds within the next couple of days, then it might be expected that ETH will reach toward new ATH`s at levels of $4.700 or $4.800. On the other hand, if the coin breaks below $4.300, which supports the lower line of the channel, it would be an indication of clear channel break, where price would head toward the support line at $4K.
Ripple: too early for $1.3?
News that company Wrapped will allow XRP to reach the DeFi market, through wXRP, strongly supported XRP`s price during the previous week. After struggling to reach the resistance line at $1.20 since the beginning of October, the previous week market pushed XRP`s price to this level, which was the coins highest price reached during the week. XRP ended a week around level of $1.15.
With the latest move to the upside, 50-days moving average began modestly to diverge from its 200-days counterpart. This might be perceived as a positive move for XRP considering that it provides some indication that pressure on $0.9 long term support and $1.0 short term support line might be over at least for now. RSI moved from 40 up to 65, but it is still not in the clear overbought zone.
Current charts are showing that there is potential for XRP`s price to go higher from current levels. However, whether the market will have strength to push the price above the resistance line at $1.20 during the next few days, is about to be seen. If this happens, then $1.30 might be the next target for XRP, but before $1.20 resistance must be tested again. On the opposite side, if $1.1 current short term support line is broken on downside, then XRP will move again to $1.0 strong support line.
Binance Coin: chasing ATH?
Last two weeks were quite positive for BNB. Coin managed to pass through the support line of $520 after two months, and during last week, the price of BNB was pushed even higher to the next resistance line at $630. At this level, the coin was last traded in May this year. Considering that BNB`s ATH stands at $700 and was reached in May this year, the question is if ATH is the next target for BNB?
As of the end of the previous week, RSI has moved above 70, indicating that a clear overbought market has been reached. In this sense, some short price correction might be expected, at least according to this indicator. Although for some time now moving averages of 50 and 200 days were moving as two parallel lines, since last week, MA50 started its stronger divergence from MA200, indicating that a cross is not going to occur in the near future.
Considering that a clear overbought market has been reached, it might be expected to be a short term price reversal in the coming days. Price might move down to $560 support line, with some probability for the next support at $520 to be reached. However, if market demand continues during the next couple of days and pushes price higher from current levels, then it could be expected that BNB will certainly head to test ATH at $700. Whether there is strength to move above ATH, is up to be seen in the coming weeks.
Cardano (ADA): no strength for move above $2.0
Pressure on downside is persistent for ADA since the beginning of October, however, prices still manage to hold close to the $2.0 resistance line. Although, during the previous week, there has been a move to the levels of $2.14, clear break of resistance line has not occurred. Daily trading volumes are relatively low, with weekly peaks, which are pushing prices higher. It suggests that there is market interest for this coin, and a sort of determination to push the price above $2.0, but there is not enough strength to sustain the $2.0 level. Taking this into account, the question is for how long the $2.0 resistance line can hold?
RSI was moving close to the oversold market, but it reverted a bit up to the levels above 40 during the week. It does not provide indication that some reversal might occur soon. MA50 is continuing its divergence to MA200, but two lines are still moving at a safe distance. Technical indicators are more on a bearish side for ADA. Considering ongoing pressure on the downside, there is a high probability that ADA will try to test the $1.85 support line in the coming weeks. However, there is also a high probability that the market will continue to test the $2.0 resistance line in the coming days.
LINK: time of a golden cross is coming ?
During the previous week LINK managed to hold at higher grounds, implying that market interest for this coin is still there. Support line at $30 still holds, while the highest weekly level reached was at $33, same as a week before. However, for the second week in a row, LINK did not manage to reach the resistance line at $35 which left some space for this level to be tested in the coming period of time.
Previous week was important for LINK, considering that MA50 has moved across MA200 from downside. This formation is called the golden cross in technical analysis, which indicates the upside trend. However, formation is still in its early stage, so it will take a couple of days to confirm itself, but is certainly some positive indication regarding potential future price move. RSI is moving around 60, which is indicating that the overbought market is still to come.
Based on current charts, there is a high probability that LINK will try to test a long term resistance line at $35. This move will also be a confirmation of the golden cross formation of moving averages. However, there is also currently equal probability that the $30 support line will be tested one more time, before final reversal to the upside.
Disclaimer: This article provides exclusive views of the author. It does not in any sense represent a suggestion for trading.
This Market Analysis has been published by a staff writer at XBTFX.
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