Last week in the news
Investors' profit-taking week pushed Bitcoin 5% lower during the week, as the coin hit ATH on Friday a week before. Bitcoin ended a week at level of $61K while Ether reached new ATH at $4.460K on Friday.
First BTC-futures based ETF, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy, was successfully listed and traded on NYSE, however, there are announcements that more similar ETF`s will soon come. Starting from the previous week, Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF or BTF, followed ProShares as a second BTC-futures based ETF traded on a regulated market. Markets are now set for the first ETF which will be based on BTC`s spot price. However, it is unlikely that the SEC will approve such a fund in the near future, or at least until mid of next year, considering the lack of regulation within this field. VanEck ETF is first on a list that is still waiting for SEC`s approval. Deadline for SEC is November 14th to approve or reject fund`s filling. In case that it is approved, the price of BTC might again look for new all time highs.
As Coindesk reported, MicroStrategy had purchased additional 9.000 Bitcoins during the third quarter, raising its holding to total 114.042 coins. It is estimated that the company's current BTC holdings are now worth more than $7 billion. Funds for latest purchase are secured through “at-the-market equity offering”. CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, sees Bitcoin as a good long term investment opportunity for his investors and intends to buy more in the future, without intention to sell coins.
As per latest announcements by Wrapped and Hex Trust, a crypto custodian from Hong Kong, during December is planned issuance of Wrapped XRP or wXRP which will be backed 1:1 by XRP. This will allow XRP holders to enter into the field of DeFi`s, allowing lending and borrowing in this coin.
Crypto market cap
After a week in which a significant milestone has been reached, during which highest levels of crypto market capitalization has been achieved, it was expected that some short term reversal will follow. During the previous week investors were taking profits after a BTC reached its highest levels, due, some relaxation on the crypto market was dominant. Eventually, crypto market capitalization ended a week flat compared to the previous one, at a level of $2.59 trillion. Week on week increase in market cap was modest 1%, mostly driven by Ether. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased compared to a week before, ranging from $140B up to $200B on a daily basis. Total inflow from the beginning of this year stands at $1.79 trillion, which is an increase of 226%.
Previous two weeks were driven by Bitcoin, however, last week belongs to Ether. This coin was a major contributor to total crypto market capitalization, with a gain of $22B on a weekly basis or 4.5%. Ether was followed by Binance Coin, which managed to gain additional $6B and increase its market cap by almost 8%. Performance of other altcoins was in a mixed mode. Good performance, among others, had Dogecoin with a gain of $3B or 9% increase in cap, followed by Theta, with gain of 13% on a weekly basis. This group also includes Polygon, who managed to increase market cap by 17% in a single week. Bitcoin Gold finished the previous week with a decrease of some 8%, followed by Cardano, who lost 8% in market cap. ZCash continued its correction with a drop of almost 10% in a single week. At the same time, several coins increased their coins in circulation, including Tether, with 1.1%, Cardano also with 1.1% and Uniswap with additional 2.6%.
The table below provides most recent information regarding market cap and circulating supply for most popular crypto currencies.
Crypto futures market
Investors' optimism still holds when it comes to future prices of both BTC and ETH. During the previous week BTC short term futures were traded 1%-2% higher compared with previous week. Futures maturing in December 2022 dropped by 4.5% on a weekly basis, however, price is still holding modestly below $70K, currently at $67K.
In line with the spot market, short term ETH futures were traded higher by 11% and 12%. Futures with maturity December 2022 have surged by 4%, which is an additional increase from last week`s 7.5%. Its price has reached a new highest level at $4.650, revealing market expectation on future new ATH`s for ETH.
Table below provides the most recent information on BTC and ETH future prices.
Bitcoin: after an ATH, pressure is on downside
Previous two weeks were quite successful for BTC, but it seems that now is time for a short break. Investors who were previously positioned in expectation of BTC`s surge in price due to the first BTC-futures ETF fund traded on NYSE, are now taking profits and creating pressure on the downside for BTC. In this sense, it was expected that BTC would start its short term correction, which occurred during the previous week. On a positive side is that the futures market is still trading at higher grounds, revealing market expectations that BTC`s future price has potential to go above current ATH, during the next year.
RSI moved from overbought market down to 50, finishing the week around level of 60. This was an expected move after a clear overbought market was reached. On a positive side is also that moving average oscillators are continuing their divergence from each other, which is an indication that potential cross is still not in the store for BTC and, in line with that, no change of trend. During the previous week strong support line at $60K has been tested, second week in a row, but it has not been clearly breached. During Wednesday and Thursday, the price of BTC briefly went down to $58K, but soon reverted back above $60K.
Technical analysis is suggesting that there is still space for BTC to revert back to the level of $50K in the coming weeks, where it will end the cycle. However, first stop is $60K, which is currently tested and it is expected to be tested in the coming days. There is also a high probability for BTC to test once again the resistance line at $65K in the coming days, before it makes a final move to $60K once again with some probability to break this level on downside, considering that this pressure holds.
In conclusion, the level to watch in the coming days is $60K. A clear break on downside would be indication for a price move down to $55K with currently decreased probability that $50K will be reached. On the opposite side, there is a probability for $65K to be tested once again.
Ether: market is still not in the overbought zone
One more time market analysts are speaking about the final break of correlation of ETC from BTC. But still, the pending question is if ETH has strength for such a move? In our opinion, this is an inevitable future for ETH, but it is still too early in crypto-market time for such a move. This discussion is again brought up in the spotlight due to the good performance of ETH during the previous week, which was negatively correlated to the price moves of BTC. Namely, ETH continued its surge in price, which started at the beginning of October, reaching new ATH on Friday at level of $4.460. That the price of ETH can go even higher revealed ETH futures, reaching $4.650 as of the end of the previous week, for maturities December 2022.
Regardless of the latest ATH, RSI reveals that ETH has still not reached a clear overbought market. This indicator is still moving modestly below level of 70, implying that price still might go higher from current levels. Since September this year oscillators of 50 and 200 days are continuing to move as two parallel lines, without any indication that some trend reversal might be ahead. Lowest level reached during the previous week was $3.880 while ETH was testing the support line at $4K. Charts are also revealing the uptrend channel which started at the beginning of October.
Support line at $4K continues to be in the focus of the market in the coming days. In case that it is broken on the downside, which would be at the same time break of the short term channel, ETH will head toward the next support line at $3.500. However, there is the same probability for ATH to be tested once again before ETH enters into short term reversal.
Ripple: ongoing pressure on downside
It was quite a volatile week for XRP. Pressure on downside continued during the week, when XRP price went down to test the long term support line at $0.9 on Wednesday and Thursday. However, coin managed to resist and soon went back to levels above $1.0, supported by positive news that company Wrapped will open a door to XRP for DeFi`s through wXRP. Although this news supported XRP`s price, still there is ongoing pressure from the market on the downside.
During the previous week RSI moved down to 40, but it has still not reached a clear oversold market. This might be an indication that the price of the XRP might go lower, until a clear oversold market is reached. Oscillators of 50 and 200 days are moving close to each other but there is still no indication that a cross might come soon.
Support line at $1.0 is still in focus of the market, since the pressure on this line continues. In case that it is broken, XRP will head toward the long term support line at $0.9. On the opposite side, the resistance line at $1.20 has not been tested since the beginning of October, leaving some probability that it might be tested in the coming days, but the first step of XRP on this move might be around $1.15 level.
Binance Coin: eyeing $560?
During the previous week Binance Coin reached its highest level in the last two months at $540. Last time when BNB was at this level was at the beginning of September. However, during the week the coin also tested the support line at $440, before it made its break toward the resistance line at $520. For a long time, BNB has been struggling to finally break this level in order to move to the next higher ground at $560. Regardless of the move toward $540 during the previous week, BNB is still testing the resistance line at $520. RSI has not reached a clear overbought market, in which sense, it is leaving some space for BNB to move to the higher grounds, before it's corrective moves to downside. Since last week, MA50 started its divergence from MA200 counterpart, implying that cross is not to be expected in the near time.
Technical analysis is suggesting that pressure on the upside and final break of $520 might continue in the coming days. In case that it is finally broken, after several months of testing, BNB will head toward the next resistance line at $560. However, in case that there is no market strength to break this level, then BNB will revert again toward the support line at $440 to test it one more time.
Cardano (ADA): oversold market is close?
Last week there was high pressure to the downside for ADA. Price has moved from $2.19 down to $1.84. MA200 is a line where ADA is finding support for the last two weeks. MA50 is continuing its strong convergence toward its MA200 counterpart, while RSI is very close to the oversold market, but still has not clearly reached it.
During the previous week the $2.0 strong support line was broken. The coin is still holding around this level, but since last week, this level has become a resistance line for ADA. During the previous week, the support line at $1.85 has been tested for two days. Although, coin managed to revert to the upside, still pressure on the downside holds for ADA. In this sense, there is a high probability that the support line at $1.85 will be tested once again in the coming days.
LINK: can MA200 hold as a support?
Although LINK did not manage to find market strength to move price to $35 resistance, it is good news that it managed to move it to $33, as higher grounds from $30 support line. This provides some indication that LINK holds market interest. Since the end of September, oscillators are moving as two parallel lines, without any indication that a cross might come soon. LINK found a significant support line at MA200 for the last two weeks. During the week RSI moved close to the overbought market line, but was holding modestly below it.
For one more week the support line at $30 is in the focus of the market. In case that it is broken on downside, then LINK will head toward the next support line at $25, but after it makes its move toward $28. However, there is an equal probability that the coin will try to test $33 one more time, in its effort to reach $35 resistance.
Disclaimer: This article provides exclusive views of the author. It does not in any sense represent a suggestion for trading.
This Market Analysis has been published by a staff writer at XBTFX.
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